Журналістика та прогностика
Альтернативна назва
Journalism and forecasting
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Дата
2025
Науковий керівник
Укладач
Редактор
Назва журналу
ISSN
2308-3255
E-ISSN
Назва тому
Видавець
Назарчук С. Л.
Анотація
Наукові досягнення по суті передбачають спрямованість на майбутнє. Існує таке судження, що прагнення людства до знання перш за все пов’язане з майбутнім, з нащадками. Якщо б люди апріорі не враховували своє існування в майбутньому, навіщо їм було б витрачати багато часу на отримання знань?
У даній статті ми зосередимось на необхідності в сучасних медіа комунікаціях «виходити за рамки сьогодення», тобто — зазирати в майбутнє. Журналістська праця призначена висвітлювати всі сторони людського буття з урахуванням психологічного, соціального, природно-технічного і навіть космічного контекстів. Журналістам варто вправно використовувати в репортажах потенціал самих респондентів з питань їх бачення перспектив розвитку тих чи інших подій, їх відчуттів причинно-наслідкових зв’язків. Тому для журналістів виникає потреба — інтегрувати в їх діяльність накопичені знання та навички з галузі соціально-комунікативної прогностики.
This article focuses on the socio-professional space of journalism, which includes the media environment and everyday life and is increasingly intersecting with the scientific sphere. This intersection becomes especially visible in the context of what is commonly referred to as “exponential growth,” when the speed of change no longer corresponds to human perceptions of time. As time appears to be constantly lacking, individuals increasingly shift their attention toward the future. This trend is evident in the growing interest in future-oriented development, long-term planning, investment, and anticipation of change. In the media and communicative space, journalists are repeatedly confronted with the need to move beyond the present — in other words, to anticipate the future and partially operate within it already. The aim of this article is to examine diverse manifestations of human aspiration and scientific inquiry related to anticipation and forecasting practices. The human capacity for creativity has long been oriented toward imagining, interpreting, and anticipating the future. Such orientations can be identified in mystical and religious traditions, everyday social practices, and scientific knowledge production. This diversity of future-oriented meanings and interpretations creates a complex environment for journalistic work, as journalism operates at the intersection of broadly shared social narratives and highly individualized life experiences. In contemporary journalism, the demand for predictive and future-oriented information is steadily increasing. Drawing on an analysis of developments in social forecasting, this article argues that the scientifically responsible use of predictive content in journalism requires clear conceptual and methodological guidelines derived from social prognostics. In particular, the term forecast should be reserved for scientifically grounded procedures that involve the systematic extension of identifiable trends into the future. The concept itself is rooted in gnosis, emphasizing knowledge-based rather than speculative forms of anticipation. At the same time, even scientifically informed forecasts of social and human behavior must acknowledge the inherent openness and contingency of human action. Human behavior often resists full formalization and predictability, which poses specific challenges for media representation. For this reason, journalistic forecasting should be closely connected to scientific expertise and the involvement of recognized specialists. Journalists must also employ appropriate communicative strategies when working with experts and be aware of the dynamic effects forecasts may produce in the public sphere, including the Oedipus effect and the Pygmalion effect. Within social prognostics, one of the most established expert-based forecasting tools is the Delphi method, which relies on structured expert consultation conducted by trained professionals. Alongside scientifically grounded forecasting, everyday future-oriented practices remain an important part of media content. These include public expectations, hopes, visions, intuitive assessments of forthcoming events, and culturally embedded rituals of anticipation. Although such practices were long regarded with skepticism in scientific discourse, they have increasingly become sources for exploratory research and hypothesis formation. In journalistic contexts, expressions of public anticipation and future-oriented opinion are of interest not only to media audiences but also to political actors, media and entertainment industries, local governance, and the advertising sector. However, responsible journalistic practice requires careful lexical and conceptual differentiation — clearly distinguishing between scientifically grounded forecasts, normative visions of desired futures, and non-scientific forms of anticipation such as rumors, speculation, or superstition.
This article focuses on the socio-professional space of journalism, which includes the media environment and everyday life and is increasingly intersecting with the scientific sphere. This intersection becomes especially visible in the context of what is commonly referred to as “exponential growth,” when the speed of change no longer corresponds to human perceptions of time. As time appears to be constantly lacking, individuals increasingly shift their attention toward the future. This trend is evident in the growing interest in future-oriented development, long-term planning, investment, and anticipation of change. In the media and communicative space, journalists are repeatedly confronted with the need to move beyond the present — in other words, to anticipate the future and partially operate within it already. The aim of this article is to examine diverse manifestations of human aspiration and scientific inquiry related to anticipation and forecasting practices. The human capacity for creativity has long been oriented toward imagining, interpreting, and anticipating the future. Such orientations can be identified in mystical and religious traditions, everyday social practices, and scientific knowledge production. This diversity of future-oriented meanings and interpretations creates a complex environment for journalistic work, as journalism operates at the intersection of broadly shared social narratives and highly individualized life experiences. In contemporary journalism, the demand for predictive and future-oriented information is steadily increasing. Drawing on an analysis of developments in social forecasting, this article argues that the scientifically responsible use of predictive content in journalism requires clear conceptual and methodological guidelines derived from social prognostics. In particular, the term forecast should be reserved for scientifically grounded procedures that involve the systematic extension of identifiable trends into the future. The concept itself is rooted in gnosis, emphasizing knowledge-based rather than speculative forms of anticipation. At the same time, even scientifically informed forecasts of social and human behavior must acknowledge the inherent openness and contingency of human action. Human behavior often resists full formalization and predictability, which poses specific challenges for media representation. For this reason, journalistic forecasting should be closely connected to scientific expertise and the involvement of recognized specialists. Journalists must also employ appropriate communicative strategies when working with experts and be aware of the dynamic effects forecasts may produce in the public sphere, including the Oedipus effect and the Pygmalion effect. Within social prognostics, one of the most established expert-based forecasting tools is the Delphi method, which relies on structured expert consultation conducted by trained professionals. Alongside scientifically grounded forecasting, everyday future-oriented practices remain an important part of media content. These include public expectations, hopes, visions, intuitive assessments of forthcoming events, and culturally embedded rituals of anticipation. Although such practices were long regarded with skepticism in scientific discourse, they have increasingly become sources for exploratory research and hypothesis formation. In journalistic contexts, expressions of public anticipation and future-oriented opinion are of interest not only to media audiences but also to political actors, media and entertainment industries, local governance, and the advertising sector. However, responsible journalistic practice requires careful lexical and conceptual differentiation — clearly distinguishing between scientifically grounded forecasts, normative visions of desired futures, and non-scientific forms of anticipation such as rumors, speculation, or superstition.
Опис
Ключові слова
прогноз, журналістське прогнозування, «ефект Едіпа» в прогностиці, «ефект Пігмаліона» в прогностиці, prediction, journalistic prediction, “Oedipus effect in forecasting”, “Pygmalion effect in forecasting”
Бібліографічний опис
Каменська Т. Журналістика та прогностика. Діалог: медіастудії : зб. наук. пр. / за ред. О. Іванової ; Одес. нац. ун-т ім. І. І. Мечникова. Одеса : Назарчук С. Л., 2025. Вип. 31. С. 79–89.
УДК
070-048.78(100)(06) 316.77