Brusylovska, Olga I.Брусиловська, Ольга Іллівна2025-02-132025-02-132024Brusylovska O. Consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for the Mediterranean through the lens of academic discourse / O. Brusylovska // Multidimensional regionalism in the Mediterranean: actors and challenges : monograph / author collective: O. Brusylovska, V. Cassar, M. Doğan et al. ; eds.: O. Brusylovska, S. Erdoğan, D. Irrera. – Odesa : Astroprint, 2024. – P. 227–246.https://dspace.onu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/40606The world’s reaction to Russian aggression is still inadequate. What consequences does it have, and what other challenges can it bring to Ukraine, Russia, other countries, and entire regions? Russian aggression against Ukraine has affected not only these two countries. Above all, it has influenced the further development of global problems such as famine, decline of agriculture, rising prices, economic instability and shortage of cheap energy. The war affects not only developing countries but also the most developed ones. Therefore, this chapter presents scenarios for the Mediterranean countries, the EU, and NATO (since the fate of these organisations is vital for the Mediterranean) as they appeared in Academia. The research question is: How has the Russian-Ukrainian war affected the academic discourse on the scenarios for the future of Mediterranean countries? About 100 sources were collected, published during 2022-2024. Semi-structured interview and data from media and secondary sources were used to collect qualitative data; Discourse Analysis was implemented to analyse the qualitative data. The hypothesis is that the Russian-Ukrainian war influenced academic discourse, so we can talk about the return of Classical Realism as the main school of international relations theory. Scientists choose scenario planning as a primary tool for constructing scenarios for the future development of the conflict and its consequences, which allows for managing the uncertainty of the future. The essence of this tool is to study the organisation’s external environment for the presence of predetermined elements and key uncertainties and combine them to formulate alternative scenarios for the future. In short, we must make a choice that, in our opinion, determines the future in a given context. Critical factors for planning are where uncertainty is high and impact is substantial. In our case, the context is Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the subject of substantial impact is the Mediterranean. Scientists use the Russian-Ukrainian war to construct a scenario field/field of uncertainty; then they form scenarios, all the time thinking about their plausibility.enthe Russian-Ukrainian warthe Mediterranean countriesUkraineRussiathe World Food Programmeblockade of Ukrainian portsthe Russian invasion of Ukrainefood and supply chain disruptionspost-communist countrieshe EU’s foreign politicsNATOinternational relationsBook chapterhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0519-4206