Яворська, Вікторія ВолодимирівнаМельник, Н. В.Yavorska, Viktoriia V.Melnyk, N. V.2026-02-152026-02-152025Яворська В. В., Мельник Н. В. Смертність як індикатор демографічного розвитку в Україні: кількісний та часовий аналіз. Вісник Одеського національного університету. Географічні та геологічні науки. 2025. Т. 30, вип. 2(47). С. 305–316.2303-9914https://dspace.onu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/43529Стаття присвячена дослідженню смертності як ключового показника оцінювання демографічного розвитку в Україні в контексті сучасних тенденцій трансформації суспільства. Застосовано кількісно-часовий підхід до аналізу смертності за період 1990‒2024 рр. Визначено основні етапи демографічної кризи, виокремлено пікові періоди надлишкової смертності. Окреслено напрями подальших досліджень у площині регресійного аналізу та моделювання демографічного розвитку.Problem Statement and Purpose. Mortality is a key parameter in assessing the demographic state, representing structural imbalances of socio-economic development and medical-demographic transformations of society. Carrying out a quantitative and temporal analysis of this indicator makes it possible to extract structural shifts in the reproduction of the population and outline current trends in demographic development in the conditions of crisis challenges. This scientific work is the first stage in a series of comprehensive scientific research aimed at researching mortality in Ukraine as a multifaceted phenomenon. A time-quantitative approach to the analysis of mortality rates makes it possible to ascertain the trends and risks determining the nature of the country’s modern demographic development. At the same time, the results of the study are the basis for studying the structure of mortality according to the main parameters, territorial patterns, long-term trends, which will make it possible to build prognostic models of the demographic development of Ukraine as a tool for the formation of regional and state demographic policy. The purpose of the study is to identify the quantitative and temporal regularities of changes in the main mortality indicators of the population of Ukraine, which shape the current state of demographic development. The object of the study is mortality as a demographic process in the structure of reproduction of the population of Ukraine. The subject of the study is the temporal aspects of mortality of the population of Ukraine in the context of their impact on general demographic trends. Data and Methods. The methodological toolkit of the research includes two blocks of methods: general scientific (analysis, synthesis, systematization, abstraction and generalization, graphic method) and special methods applied in demographic and socio-geographical studies (systemic-geographical approach, mathematical, statistical, method of analysis of relationships and interdependencies, correlation, grouping). The basis of the statistical analysis was the official statistical materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Justice, as well as dashboards of statistical materials “Opendatabot”. Statistical data processing was carried out using Google tools. Results. According to our calculations, the total relative loss of the population of Ukraine due to mortality over the past thirty-five years is 51.78%. Over the entire observation period, relative losses due to mortality ranged from 1.2% to 1.7% annually at a weighted average of 1.48% per year. This estimate does not take into account migration, low birth rate, indirect losses due to military operations and occupation of part of the state’s territory, etc., but only illustrates the accumulated relative “burden” for the country’s population during the specified period. The long-term upward trend in the mortality rate can be seen throughout the study period, including a sharp increase in 1990–1995 amid the socio-economic crisis, relative stabilization in 1995–2008, and sharp surges in 2022 and 2023 associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and full-scale war. The decline of the indicator after 2022 is probably due to the incompleteness of statistical data. The average mortality rate for the period was 15.1‰, and the fluctuations around the trend indicate the impact of extreme events. Overall, increased mortality is correlated with processes of demographic ageing. We calculated the mortality rate and its growth rate, which made it possible to identify structural imbalances and hidden population losses. The deepening of depopulation processes in Ukraine is due to a combination of demographic (decrease in birth rate, increase in mortality), socio-economic (migration, aging of the population), and foreign policy factors (annexation, war, pandemics).ukдемографічний розвитоксмертністьдемографічна кризаУкраїнаdemographic developmentmortalitydemographic crisisUkraineArticlehttps://doi.org/10.18524/2303-9914.2025.2(47).344773314.14:314-043.86(477)https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7449-7908https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2077-595X2415-315X