Фінансовий форсаж як стратегія модернізації фінансової системи України
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Дата
2021
Науковий керівник
Укладач
Редактор
Назва журналу
ISSN
E-ISSN
Назва тому
Видавець
Одеський національний університет імені І. І. Мечникова
Анотація
Здатність фінансової системи ефективно виконувати свої власні функції є одним із головних чинників
зростання соціально-економічного добробуту країни. Особливо актуальним це є сьогодні, коли посилюється невизначеність і нестабільність національних фінансових систем, глобального фінансового
середовища в цілому. Важливим питання формування і розвитку фінансових механізмів економічного
зростання, зростання рівня та якості життя населення є і для України. Для його вирішення було обґрунтовано модернізацію фінансової системи України на основі застосування стратегії фінансового форсажу,
яка успішно була реалізована у багатьох країнах світу у різні часи. Визначено, що стратегія фінансового
форсажу – це режим фінансової системи, створений для того, щоб простимулювати багатократне економічне зростання; це зростаюча фінансіалізація, фінансовий розвиток національної економіки; налаштування ключових параметрів, механізмів фінансової системи на соціально-економічне зростання. За результатами кореляційного аналізу виявлено фактори «фінансового форсажу», які мають найбільший вплив на динаміку ВВП в Україні. На основі регресійного аналізу спрогнозовано вплив значущих факторів «фінансового форсажу» на динаміку ВВП України. У контексті результатів дослідження розроблено
рекомендації щодо подальшої модернізації фінансової системи України.
The financial system ability to effectively implement its own functions is one of the basic factors facilitating a growth of the social and economic welfare of the country. It is particularly pressing nowadays when uncertainty and instability of the national financial systems and the global financial environment on the whole gain momentum. The important problem to shape and develop financial mechanisms ensuring economic growth, better welfare and living standards is on the agenda for Ukraine as well. With a view of coping with this problem, the upgrading of the financial system of Ukraine was substantiated by applying the financial boost strategy which was successfully implemented in Germany, Italy, Spain and Austria after the Second World War and, later, in the Eastern and South-Eastern countries of Asia (China, South Korea, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore) in the end of the 20th century, and in the beginning of the 21st century in the Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia). It was defined that the financial boost strategy means such mode of the financial system which has been developed in order to stimulate a multiple economic growth; these are the growing financialization and financial development of the national economy and tuning of the key parameters and the financial system mechanisms so as to ensure social and economic growth. The analysis of the correlation analysis of the impact produced by the “financial boost” factors as applied for Ukraine, the following was revealed: a strong mutual interrelation between the GDP and monetization, mutual and strong interrelation between the GDP and bank credits disbursed to business entities, mutual interrelation between the GDP and bank deposits, direct interdependence between the GDP and the exchange rate and direct interrelation between the GDP and tax loading. On the basis of the regression analysis the impact of the significant factors of the “financial boost” on the Ukrainian GDP dynamics were forecast. As a result, it was found out that the maximum positive impact can assure expansion of private crediting by the financial sector. The performed calculation proves that in order to ensure economic growth in 2020–2022 at the 5% level per annum, the total volume of credits disbursed to the private sector should grow by 40% provided the first year growth equals 27.9%. Certainly, it is evident that such rapid growth will necessitate a higher monetization level, which does not meet the monetary and macro-prudential policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. In this context the recommendations aimed at further upgrading of the financial system of Ukraine have been developed.
The financial system ability to effectively implement its own functions is one of the basic factors facilitating a growth of the social and economic welfare of the country. It is particularly pressing nowadays when uncertainty and instability of the national financial systems and the global financial environment on the whole gain momentum. The important problem to shape and develop financial mechanisms ensuring economic growth, better welfare and living standards is on the agenda for Ukraine as well. With a view of coping with this problem, the upgrading of the financial system of Ukraine was substantiated by applying the financial boost strategy which was successfully implemented in Germany, Italy, Spain and Austria after the Second World War and, later, in the Eastern and South-Eastern countries of Asia (China, South Korea, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore) in the end of the 20th century, and in the beginning of the 21st century in the Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia). It was defined that the financial boost strategy means such mode of the financial system which has been developed in order to stimulate a multiple economic growth; these are the growing financialization and financial development of the national economy and tuning of the key parameters and the financial system mechanisms so as to ensure social and economic growth. The analysis of the correlation analysis of the impact produced by the “financial boost” factors as applied for Ukraine, the following was revealed: a strong mutual interrelation between the GDP and monetization, mutual and strong interrelation between the GDP and bank credits disbursed to business entities, mutual interrelation between the GDP and bank deposits, direct interdependence between the GDP and the exchange rate and direct interrelation between the GDP and tax loading. On the basis of the regression analysis the impact of the significant factors of the “financial boost” on the Ukrainian GDP dynamics were forecast. As a result, it was found out that the maximum positive impact can assure expansion of private crediting by the financial sector. The performed calculation proves that in order to ensure economic growth in 2020–2022 at the 5% level per annum, the total volume of credits disbursed to the private sector should grow by 40% provided the first year growth equals 27.9%. Certainly, it is evident that such rapid growth will necessitate a higher monetization level, which does not meet the monetary and macro-prudential policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. In this context the recommendations aimed at further upgrading of the financial system of Ukraine have been developed.
Опис
Ключові слова
фінансова система України, фінансовий форсаж, соціально-економічне зростання, фінансовий розвиток національної економіки, модернізація фінансової системи, financial system of Ukraine, “financial boost”, social and economic growth, financial development of the national economy, upgrading of the financial system
Бібліографічний опис
Вісник Одеського національного університету = Odesa National University Herald