Репозитарій ОНУ імені І.І.Мечникова

Перегляд за Автор "Sinovets, Polina A."

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Ban the bomb by… banning the bomb? A Ukrainian response
(2017) Sinovets, Polina A.; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна
When the UN First Committee voted in October to initiate conferences at which a treaty banning nuclear weapons would be negotiated, a country such as Ukraine might have been expected to vote in favor. At the end of the Cold War, after all, Ukraine had inherited the world’s third-largest arsenal of nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union – but Kiev gave them up. Ukraine also joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a nonnuclear weapon state, and it remains a treaty member in good standing. Moreover, Ukraine is threatened to its east by one of the world’s two largest nuclear powers – and does not benefit from the nuclear deterrence capacity of the other. So Ukraine voted in favor of banning the Bomb – right?
Black Sea Region in World Policy: Actors, Factors, and Scenarios of the Future
(Odesa I. I. Mechnikov National University, 2020) Koval, Ihor M.; Brusylovska, Olga I.; Gaber, Yevheniia; Sinovets, Polina A.; Maksymenko, Iryna V.; Shelest, Hanna; Udovik, Violetta; Glebov, Sergii V.; Коваль, Ігор Миколайович; Брусиловська, Ольга Іллівна; Габер, Євгенія; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна; Максименко, Ірина Володимирівна; Шелест, Ганна; Удовік, Віолетта; Глебов, Сергій Володимирович
Political, economic and cultural borders are usually different from geographical ones; this also applies to the Black Sea region. Only six countries border the Black Sea: Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia and Turkey. But the Charter of the Organization of Black Sea Cooperation (BSEC) was also signed by Albania, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Greece. Moldova can be geographically considered a part of the Black Sea region, as it is located between Ukraine and Romania and is close to the Black Sea. Greece is close to the mouth of the Bosporus, which connects the Black and Mediterranean Seas. Armenia does not border the Black Sea, but is located near it. Two other countries are located on the shores of other seas connected to the Black Sea by many waterways: Azerbaijan (via the Caspian) and Albania (via the Adriatic). Therefore, the definition of the Black Sea is based on the signing of the BSEC, which laid the foundation for modern economic and political relations between 11 countries in the region. However, the relevance of this monograph is primarily due to the fact that the BSEC has not become the main field of interaction for the Black Sea states. On the contrary, its current state can be bluntly described as “comatose”. Therefore, this collective monograph is devoted, firstly, to identifying the behaviour of the main systemic and non-systemic actors that determine the development of the regional system of the Black Sea region, and, secondly, to identify factors that affect these actors in order to predict their behaviour in the medium term. The purpose of the monograph is to identify the causes of the decline of the Black Sea regional system. The research dilemma can be formulated as follows: to what extent is this decline the result of the actions of the two regional leaders, Turkey and the Russian Federation, and to what extent is it due to non-systemic actors? Among the tasks is the identification of modern theoretical approaches that most adequately help to build a study of the dynamics of the Black Sea region. Also included in these tasks is the identification of the following features: a) the policy of Turkey and Russia as regional leaders of the Black Sea region, b) the policies of the EU and NATO as the most influential international organizations, and c) the policies of China and Japan as non-systemic actors whose influence on the Black Sea is constantly growing. The concepts of systemic and non-systemic actors are critically important for this monograph. Therefore, a systematic approach was chosen for the study, which in turn provided an opportunity to: 1) consider the object under study (the Black Sea) as a complex system of input and output signals, 2) to establish the connection of the system with its environment (world politics, which is manifested in the politics of major world actors), and to 3) specify the object of study (the Black Sea) as a system that is limited by internally defined relationships between elements. A systematic approach to the phenomenon includes the analysis of: 1) the elements that make up the system, 2) the patterns of the origin and development of the phenomenon, 3) its evolution, 4) the reasons for the changes, and 5) the essence and laws of its development. The application of the systems approach first enabled the division of the Black Sea into a number of subsystems (including lower level systems, such as regional leaders, EU newcomers, New Eastern Europe, and the South Caucasus), and then allowed for an analysis of the harmonization of each subsystem within the overall purpose of the system. It further allowed for a final construction of a systemic hierarchy, and the hierarchy of factors which make up this system and contribute to its functioning. A prominent place in the study is given to the study of direct and feedback relations of the Black Sea with the EU, NATO, China and Japan, which constitute the environment of the regional system under study. Additional research methods were chosen, namely the prognostic method and the case study method; the selection of these methods provides for an opportunity not only to investigate individual cases, but also to apply the acquired knowledge in further scientific research on other cases. Scenario construction is a means of forecasting, which is used to predict the development of political events. This establishes a logical sequence of events, based on an existing or given situation. The scenarios focus on the connections between events and on the critical points where the effects can actually have an impact on the situation. Therefore, a study of the Black Sea’s place in world politics would be incomplete without trying to provide potential scenarios for the coming decades. The monograph focuses on the various developing relations in the Black Sea region, which over the years have been researched by the staff of the Department of International Relations of the Odessa I. I. Mechnikov National University. Accordingly, the work is structurally divided into eight sections, each of which covers a separate area of the foreign policy of international and national actors. The work is designed for everyone who is interested in foreign policy and international relations – from students to experts.
Enemy at the gates: current international security challenges and the nonproliferation architecture
(Одеський національний університет імені І. І. Мечникова, 2018) Sinovets, Polina A.; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна; Синовец, Полина Андреевна
The latest decade turned to be critical for the Nonproliferation regime. The crisis of the security assurances, the growing role of nuclear weapons in politics as well as the emergence of the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty, trying to present the alternative to the NPT: all these trends threaten the stability of the Treaty and the integrity of the regime in general.
Europe’s nuclear woes: Mitigating the challenges of the next years
(2017) Kühn, Ulrich; Shetty, Shatabhisha; Sinovets, Polina A.; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна
As long as the relationship between Russia and the West continues to be confrontational, the urgent task will be to stabilize and manage the confrontation. For NATO, this primarily means balancing deterrence and assurance measures to its easternmost allies without entering a new arms race. NATO should step up its efforts to foster talks with Russia on current military threats and on arms control, possibly by seeking reconstitution of the NATO-Russia Council as a crisis management forum and mechanism for dialog, dealing with dangerous military incidents and better communicating each side’s intentions. As for the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty crisis and the interlinked issue of the European missile defense, US officials should consider face-saving options to reassure Russia that Western missile defense installations have no offensive capabilities – provided that Russia convinces the new US administration that it has returned to compliance with the INF Treaty. Over the mid- to long-term, NATO and Russia must initiate a serious and open dialogue about the two core issues at stake – the freedom and sovereignty of states to seek alliance membership and the (contradicting) Russian interest of maintaining a sphere of influence over its “near abroad.” A well-prepared conference – akin to the 1975 Helsinki Summit, with various preceding rounds of consultations at ambassadorial level, and including the nonaligned states in Europe – might be a way to kick-start the discussion.
From Stalin to Putin: Russian Strategic Culture in XXI Century, its Continuity and Change
(2016) Sinovets, Polina A.; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна
The last two years have attracted the world’s attention to Russia. The annexation of Crimea, the hybrid war in Eastern Ukraine, and finally the unexpected interference in Syria—all these actions bring us back to the question of understanding the Russian motivation properly. Generally, it includes the whole interpretation of Russian strategic culture which is based on the research and analysis of the different factors: from literature and history to religion and political nature of the Russian state. Significant attempts to understand Moscow’s strategic culture were made by the American experts during the Cold War; therefore the article analyzes the main pillars of Russian strategic culture, its continuity and change in comparison to Soviet times as well as the main reactions of Moscow for what it considers to be a threat.
How Russia’s nuclear buildup offers a good opportunity for renewed arms control dialogue
(2018) Sinovets, Polina A.; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in 2015 that he viewed the United States as seeking “to destroy strategic balance, to change the balance of power in such a way not just to dominate but also to dictate their will to anyone.” Some may regard these as just words, but they hint at a justification for Russia’s nuclear weapon modernization program. If the Kremlin decides, even vaguely, that “the existence of the Russian Federation is under threat,” as per its 2014 military doctrine, a nuclear conflict could break out regionally or even globally. Moscow’s rhetoric about the status of its strategic arsenal has been belligerent at times, making its intent and the status of its development progress cloudy. For its part, the Western media has been posting alarmist comments about the growing capabilities of Russia’s nuclear arsenal and its new types of weapons under development (take for example the apocalyptic Newsweek headline: “The U.S.-Russia Nuclear Arms Race is Over, and Russia Has Won”).
Russia's 2014 Military Doctrine and Beyond: Threat Perceptions, Capabilities and Ambitions
(2015) Sinovets, Polina A.; Renz, Bettina; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна
The views expressed in this paper are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the NATO Defense College or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Russian Dr. Strangelove or how Moscow never stopped loving the bomb: Russia’s approach to deterrence
(Гельветика, 2024) Sinovets, Polina A.; Maksymenko, Iryna V.; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна; Максименко, Ірина Володимирівна
The international security system has been in crisis for the past decade, with the most significant escalation occurring when Russia launched an armed aggression against Ukraine, a country that was guaranteed protection under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994. This event led to a major shift in the role of nuclear weapons in global relations, triggering discussions about revising nuclear strategies and the use of nuclear deterrence as a policy tool. Russia has openly stated that traditional nuclear deterrence is no longer effective and has considered lowering the nuclear threshold to restore the credibility of its deterrence. This article aims to determine whether this potential shift in Russia’s nuclear strategy represents a move towards nuclear escalation or is merely an attempt to enhance its deterrence capabilities. The research is based on the theory of nuclear deterrence, focusing on the reliability, decisiveness, persuasiveness, and dynamics of deterrence. It examines Russia’s nuclear posture through the lens of its perception of deterrence, analyzing its military doctrines and strategies alongside the statements of Russian senior strategic representatives to gain insights into Moscow’s nuclear strategies and the stability of its deterrence. The study also explores the character of the Russian leader and their willingness to bear the risk of nuclear conflict, which directly influences the persuasiveness of Russia’s nuclear deterrence. Additionally, it delves into Russia’s “red lines” and the extent to which they reflect the true determination of the Russian leadership. In conclusion, the study suggests a decrease in the effectiveness of Russia’s nuclear deterrence, with attempts to restore it through the threat of using nuclear weapons if certain “red lines” are crossed.
Strategic Culture and Foreign Policy of Ukraine
(Одеський національний університет імені І. І. Мечникова, 2017) Koval, Ihor M.; Коваль, Ігор Миколайович; Коваль, Игорь Николаевич; Brusylovska, Olga I.; Брусиловська, Ольга Іллівна; Брусиловская, Ольга Ильинична; Dubovyk, Volodymyr A.; Дубовик, Володимир Алімович; Дубовик, Владимир Алимович; Sinovets, Polina A.; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна; Синовец, Полина Андреевна; Glebov, Sergii V.; Maksymenko, Iryna V.; Максименко, Ірина Володимирівна; Максименко, Ирина Владимировна; Kuzmin, Denys V.; Кузьмін, Денис Валерійович; Кузьмин, Денис Валерьевич; Pokas, Mykhailo S.; Покась, Михайло Сергійович; Покась, Михаил Сергеевич; Tarasiuk, Yuliia M.; Тарасюк, Юлія Матвіївна; Тарасюк, Юлия Матвеевна; Zubarenko, Iryna V.; Зубаренко, Ірина Валеріївна; Зубаренко, Ирина Валерьевна; Poble, Dmytro; Zadorozhnia, Alina H.; Maistrenko, Yuliia I.; Майстренко, Юлія Іванівна; Майстренко, Юлия Ивановна; Задорожня, Аліна Григорівна
The state’s strategic culture is an integrated system of symbols reflected in language, analogies, myths, metaphors, and daily rituals. This system creates firm strategic goals and/or preferences for the role of power (economic, military, and political) in the interstate relations. Strategic culture relates to shared beliefs and patterns of behaviour, which grew out of common experiences and adopted narratives (oral and written). These change collective identity and relations with other groups, determining the accepted objectives and methods for fulfilling tasks in the realm of security. Contemporary political scientists and scholars of international relations are paying more attention to the study of strategic culture since there are more and more international problems related to the fact that the actors “speak different languages”, meaning that the same phenomenon is interpreted differently in different cultures; one side often cannot comprehend the viewpoint of its opponent. In order to foresee future developments and to conduct strategic planning, the politicians and scholars, who are involved in the decision-making process, must be able to account for sudden changes in cultural symbols and behavioural habits, adjustments which were already made by the political elites of various states. The question of how identity influences the strategic choices of a state is timely for contemporary political scientists. So, the main notions that are most frequently connected to the analysis o f strategic-cultural discourses are the following: history, national character, national memory, culture, religion, faith, customs, ethnicity, multiculturalism, behavioural habits, socialization, political thought, values, morals and law, ceremonies, and myths.
The essence of russian strategic culture: from the Third Rome to the Russian world
(Одеський національний університет імені І. І. Мечникова, 2021) Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна; Sinovets, Polina A.; Синовец, Полина Андреевна; Nerez, Mykyta; Нерез, М. Р.
The article is dedicated to the exploration of the Russian strategic culture and its influence on the major foreign and security policy trends of the Russian Federation. In particular, we suggest dividing Russian strategic culture into the three domains, taking roots from the historic, geographic, and religious foundations of the Moscow state. Those are, first, the Third Rome doctrine, having laid the background for the Russian imperial messianism, the immanent rivalry with the West as well as the Russian World idea and the further annexation of Crimea. Second, the “gathering lands” principle added the sacral meaning to the idea of strategic depth and the territory of Russia. As the result, the breakup of the Soviet Union and the enlargement of NATO to the East became the most painful episodes in Russian history, causing the reaction, which led to the confrontational role of Russia in the international system. And “the besieged fortress” principle serves as the element of integrating the Russian state and society as it is based on the idea that only the existence of rivals makes Russia the great state.
The role of international organizations in maintaining peace and security after 2022: problems and prospects
(Одеський національний університет імені І. І. Мечникова, 2023) Marchuk, S. Р.; Марчук, С. П.; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна; Sinovets, Polina A.
The article provides an analysis of the effectiveness of international organizations in ensuring international security and peace against the background of the ongoing large-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation. Significant attention is paid to the fundamental international institutions that are actively acting during the war in Ukraine, such as the UN, the IAEA, the International Society of the Red Cross and Red Crescent, and the International Criminal Court. As part of the analysis, the problem of the effectiveness of organizations as actors of international relations after the collapse of the bipolar system of the world and the collapse of the world order during the "Cold War" period is considered. In particular, the article highlights the possible reasons for the decrease in the influence of international institutions over the last decades on solving critical humanitarian issues, making important political decisions, and issues of war, peace and security in the world. As examples for evaluating the activities of international organizations, their activities in the face of the main challenges of the international security system in recent years are cited: the full-scale war in Ukraine and the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Role of Nuclear Weapons in Russia’s Worldview: Policy Implications
(2015) Sinovets, Polina A.; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна
Nuclear weapons occupy a special place in the policy of Russia. Today it is even possible to say that they have become a part of Russian strategic culture, initially built around the idea of a strong military state. It is difficult not to agree with Fritz Ermarth, who said that during the whole history of the Russian Empire military power became the “chief institutional foundation of Russian statehood”.1 Even the abdication of Tsar Nicolas II from the throne in 1917 was accepted by the General Staff, instead of by the State Duma, as it should have been.2 The same culture was continued by the USSR. Having become a superpower following the victory over Germany in 1945, 5 million Soviet troops were deployed across the territories of Eastern Europe, ready to grasp the whole continent upon the General Secretary’s command.After the breakup of the Soviet Union, which saw a weakening in the field of conventional weapons, Russia still continued to occupy the position of the second world’s nuclear superpower. This criteria of the great state – the only remaining since the time of the Cold War – has become one of the greatest incentives to revive Russian state nationalism, which together with revanchist ideas form the political portrait of Moscow today. The aim of the article is to analyze the connections between the Russian nuclear worldview and Russian state policy during the twenty-five years since the end of the Cold War.
Ukraine and its Neighbourhood Howto Deal with Aggressive Russia
(2015) Becker, Caterina; Reisinger, Heidi; Sinovets, Polina A.; Windsor, Brooke smith; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна
The following report summarizes the core issues and findings of the discussion, obviously without covering every part of the intense and sometimes outspoken debate in its entirety.
Ukraine's Position on the INF Treaty Suspension
(2019) Sinovets, Polina A.; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна; Синовец, Полина Андреевна; Izhak, Oleksii
This paper examines the official Ukrainian position on the suspension of the INF Treaty. It sheds light on current debates about Ukraine: whether it should enhance own security by starting to produce missiles that were previously forbidden by the INF. Consequently, the paper suggests three alternative scenarios. They range from keeping the status quo with the missiles currently in production up to the production of new missiles or joining European missile defense under the auspices of NATO. In general, there are two positions on Ukraine's membership in the INF. One is that according to the "Law on the succession of States in respect of treaties" adopted by Ukrainian parliament Verkhovna Rada, Kyiv is one of the successors of the Soviet Union in respect of INF along with other former republics involved in the production and deployment of short and intermediate-range missiles. This position also bases on the "Decision on the participation of the member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in the Treaty between the USSR and the United States on the elimination of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles (INF treaty)" signed in 1992.
Women and weapons: Redressing the gender gap A Ukrainian response
(2014) Sinovets, Polina A.; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна
In nuclear war, women would suffer at least as much as men. But women tend to be underrepresented in fields – such as high-level politics, diplomacy, military affairs, and science and technology – that bear on nuclear policy. Authors from four countries – Salma Malik of Pakistan (2014), Polina Sinovets of Ukraine, Reshmi Kazi of India (2014), and Jenny Nielsen of Denmark (2014) – discuss how women might gain greater influence on nuclear weapons policy and how their empowerment might affect disarmament and nonproliferation efforts.
Актуальні проблеми світової політики
(Астропринт, 2024) Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна; Максименко, Ірина Володимирівна; Sinovets, Polina A.; Maksymenko, Iryna V.
Методичні вказівки розраховані на поглиблене вивчення тем навчальної дисципліни «Актуальні проблеми світової політики» здобувачами першого (бакалаврського) рівня вищої освіти спеціальності 291 «Міжнародні відносини, суспільні комунікації та регіональні студії» та були розроблені відповідно до силабусу та робочої програми дисципліни. Основна мета вказівок – надати методичну допомогу здобувачам вищої освіти у підготовці та вивченні тем практичних занять та у процесі самостійної роботи.
Війна РФ проти України: російські ядерні наративи
(Одеський національний університет імені І. І. Мечникова, 2023) Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна; Максименко, Ірина Володимирівна; Sinovets, Polina A.; Maksymenko, Iryna V.
Цілеспрямоване використання наративів та дезінформації притаманне зовнішній політиці росії не перший рік. Традиційно ці наративи спрямовувалися на внутрішнього користувача для обговорення ролі росії у світі, для формування позитивного сприйняття та підтримки суспільством дій політичних кіл, а назовні вони слугували як проекція державної сили та засіб переконання міжнародної спільноти у легітимності та правомірності російських дій та заходів [5, 7, 8]. В умовах українсько-російського конфлікту, що почався у 2014, та підготовки до повномасштабної війни поширення «потрібної» російській владі (дез-) інформації через конкретні наративи набуло додаткового значення.
Динаміка трансформації ядерного стримування у постбіполярний період: Близькосхідний аспект
(2010) Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна; Sinovets, Polina A.; Синовец, Полина Андреевна
Досліджуються процеси трансформації теорії ядерного стримування та формування так званого комплексного стримування в контексті нових регіональних викликів безпеці, що з’являються після розпаду біполярної системи міжнародних відносин.
Дипломатична та консульська служба
(2023) Побле, Дмитро Костянтинович; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна; Poble, Dmytro K.; Sinovets, Polina A.
Методичні вказівки розраховані на поглиблене вивчення тем навчальної дисципліни «Дипломатична та консульська служба» та були розроблені відповідно до робочої програми та силабусу для здобувачів першого (бакалаврського) рівня вищої освіти спеціальності 291 «Міжнародні відносини, суспільні комунікації та регіональні студії». Основна мета вказівок — надати методичну допомогу здобувачам вищої освіти у підготовці та вивченні тем практичних занять та у процесі самостійної роботи.
Ескалація для деескалації у політиці Російської Федерації
(Одеський національний університет імені І. І. Мечникова, 2021) Усенко, Інга Ігорівна; Usenko, Inha I.; Сіновець, Поліна Андріївна; Sinovets, Polina A.
«Ескалація для деескалації» ‒ це оцінка американською стороною ядерної політики Росії. Поняття існує в умовному діалозі між двома країнами, в контексті ядерного аспекту їх двосторонніх відносин, і, безпосередньо, проблеми обмеження ядерних озброєнь. Метою статті є аналіз поняття «ескалації для деескалації» та військової політики Російської Федерації. |Автор вказує, що формулювання «ескалація для деескалації» не міститься в офіційних документах, проте положення, що відповідають його змісту наявні в діючій військовій доктрині Росії 2014 року, яка з моменту її прийняття підвищила ядерний поріг і закріпила неядерне стримування.

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