Modeling migration changes according to alternative scenarios in the context of the global Covid-19 pandemic: the example of Ukraine
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Дата
2022
Науковий керівник
Укладач
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Назва журналу
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Назва тому
Видавець
Анотація
Global processes significantly affect the mobility of the population. In the context of
geopolitical transformation, globalization and quarantine restrictions of Covid-19, it is
important to predict the development of the migration movement of countries that are
developing. Therefore, the article is aimed at modelling migration changes according
to alternative scenarios using the example of Ukraine.
The theoretical and methodological basis of the research is formed by a number of
scientific works of leading scientists from different countries, statistical information on
migration processes and socio-economic indicators of Ukraine’s development,
economic, mathematical and scenario methods. In the course of the study, the main
factors were identified that more affect the migration processes of Ukraine, taking into
account the trends in the impact of Covid-19 on them. These include population size,
life expectancy, GDP per capita, average monthly wages, and the volume of remittances
from individuals to Ukraine.
With the help of correlation-regression analysis, a multivariate econometric model of
migration growth (reduction) has been built. This made it possible to study the absolute
and relative influence of factors on the magnitude of the migration increase (decrease),
determine the potential reserves for its increase (decrease), evaluate them using a comparative analysis and carry out predictive calculations of the volume of migration
increase (decrease) in Ukraine.
Опис
Ключові слова
migration, migration movement, migration increase, emigrants, immigrants, multivariate econometric model, scenarios, Covid-19
Бібліографічний опис
Economic Studies