Ескалація для деескалації у політиці Російської Федерації
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Дата
2021
Науковий керівник
Укладач
Редактор
Назва журналу
Номер ISSN
Номер E-ISSN
Назва тому
Видавець
Одеський національний університет імені І. І. Мечникова
Анотація
«Ескалація для деескалації» ‒ це оцінка
американською стороною ядерної
політики Росії. Поняття існує в умовному
діалозі між двома країнами, в контексті
ядерного аспекту їх двосторонніх
відносин, і, безпосередньо, проблеми
обмеження ядерних озброєнь. Метою
статті є аналіз поняття «ескалації для
деескалації» та військової політики
Російської Федерації. |Автор вказує, що
формулювання «ескалація для деескалації»
не міститься в офіційних документах,
проте положення, що відповідають його
змісту наявні в діючій військовій доктрині
Росії 2014 року, яка з моменту її
прийняття підвищила ядерний поріг і
закріпила неядерне стримування.
"Escalation for de-escalation" is the American side's assessment of Russia's nuclear policy. The concept exists in the dialogue between the two countries, in the context of the nuclear aspect of their bilateral relations, and, particularly, the problem of limiting nuclear weapons. In recent years, the revival of the nuclear arms race and the mutual lowering of the nuclear threshold have been under discussion. In January 2021, the Treaty between Russia and the United States on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) has been renewed within the context of deteriorating relations between the states. Besides, addressing this issue is specifically important for Ukraine, considering the existing armed conflict on its territory that is being fueled by Russia. The development of conventional weapons and non-nuclear deterrent potential has made Russia less dependent on the nuclear factor in national security issues. Vladimir Putin argues that the first nuclear strike cannot be delivered by Russia; a preemptive strike is not provided for by the current military doctrine. But the first strike is not necessarily preemptive. There is a possibility that the Russian government will resort to nuclear weapons if the conflict reaches the stage of a large-scale conventional war in which Russia can lose, namely the Russian government with the prospect of losing power. Thus, "escalation for de-escalation", without being spelled out in official documents, can be implemented in critical conditions. The current military doctrine of Russia was published at the very end of 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. According to some scientists, on the contrary, it raised the nuclear threshold and accentuated nonnuclear deterrence and, perhaps, was a kind of conciliatory gesture on the part of Russia, no matter how paradoxical it may sound. Russia's use of nuclear weapons as a political instrument affects Ukraine directly. It may be the nuclear rhetoric that has a deterrent effect on the United States and NATO. NATO's reaction showed that for the members of the Alliance, Crimea is not the territory over which it would be worthwhile to come into a conflict with Russia.
"Escalation for de-escalation" is the American side's assessment of Russia's nuclear policy. The concept exists in the dialogue between the two countries, in the context of the nuclear aspect of their bilateral relations, and, particularly, the problem of limiting nuclear weapons. In recent years, the revival of the nuclear arms race and the mutual lowering of the nuclear threshold have been under discussion. In January 2021, the Treaty between Russia and the United States on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) has been renewed within the context of deteriorating relations between the states. Besides, addressing this issue is specifically important for Ukraine, considering the existing armed conflict on its territory that is being fueled by Russia. The development of conventional weapons and non-nuclear deterrent potential has made Russia less dependent on the nuclear factor in national security issues. Vladimir Putin argues that the first nuclear strike cannot be delivered by Russia; a preemptive strike is not provided for by the current military doctrine. But the first strike is not necessarily preemptive. There is a possibility that the Russian government will resort to nuclear weapons if the conflict reaches the stage of a large-scale conventional war in which Russia can lose, namely the Russian government with the prospect of losing power. Thus, "escalation for de-escalation", without being spelled out in official documents, can be implemented in critical conditions. The current military doctrine of Russia was published at the very end of 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. According to some scientists, on the contrary, it raised the nuclear threshold and accentuated nonnuclear deterrence and, perhaps, was a kind of conciliatory gesture on the part of Russia, no matter how paradoxical it may sound. Russia's use of nuclear weapons as a political instrument affects Ukraine directly. It may be the nuclear rhetoric that has a deterrent effect on the United States and NATO. NATO's reaction showed that for the members of the Alliance, Crimea is not the territory over which it would be worthwhile to come into a conflict with Russia.
Опис
Ключові слова
ескалація, деескалація, військова доктрина, ядерна зброя, превентивний удар, escalation, de-escalation, military doctrine, nuclear weapons, preventive strike
Бібліографічний опис
Соціально-політичні студії : наук. альманах